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| No Draymond Green? No problem. |
By Mark Bacon
Much as I want to say there's a chance, the truth is the Golden State Warriors will win the NBA Championship this evening. Their record breaking season has propelled them to this juncture, and there is no denying the obvious. They have solved LeBron James, and the rest of the Cavs are overmatched. It also highlights how much weaker the NBA East is versus the West.
The Warriors look to clinch their first-ever back-to-back NBA championships Monday night in Oracle, 9 p.m. ET on ABC. Here's where the series stands after Friday night’s Game 4.
It was very much possible that instead of Cleveland finding adjustments and a solution for the Warriors in game 3, Golden State just had a bad game. If so, there was every reason to think they would play better and win Game 4, effectively ending the series. That's what happened. Though they started off rocky, and the Cavaliers lead by eight points at one moment, it wasn't enough, and the Warriors eventually shot their way to a win.
No team has ever lost after going up 3-1 in the Finals (32-0). Surprisingly, teams are just 13-10 in Game 5's at home after going up 3-1, so there's at least a little hope that Cleveland can push the series back to Cleveland to give themselves a chance at the biggest comeback in NBA Finals history, but in reality, this is done.
The Warriors have led for the majority of the series, dominate in nearly every statistical category, have won all the matchups, figured out / neutralized LeBron James, stymied Kyrie Irving, negated J.R. Smith, and likely have already gotten Kevin Love traded. All that's left is to figure out how many games it takes, where the Warriors stand as an all-time team, and where the Cavaliers go from here.
With Draymond Green out, expect the Warriors to move Iguodala into the starting lineup, with a modified small-ball unit featuring Andrew Bogut at center. Their small-ball advantage is less with Bogut on the floor, but their versatility at 1-4 still gives them an advantage, especially since the Cavaliers will still be starting Tristan Thompson. Mo Speights likely gets more time, and that helps the Cavs, but if the Warriors simply shoot the lights out as they are prone to at any time and especially at home, Golden State can still secure the title.
- The Warriors are 6.5-point favorites in Game 5, the highest they've been favored in this series. Took a while but the books and the public finally gave up on Cleveland
- Teams have never lost a 3-1 lead in the Finals (32-0).
- Teams are 13-10 at home in Game 5 of the Finals after going up 3-1.
- Teams are only 5-7 after losing Game 3 and winning Game 4 to go up 3-1 per WhoWins.com.
- The Warriors have 29 more assists on only six more made field goals in this series. That is incredibly telling.
- Golden State has outscored Cleveland by 60 points from the arc in this series.
- The Cavs have more rebounds, more points in the paint, more second-chance points, and more fast-break points in this series.
- Channing Frye is the only Cleveland rotation player with a positive net rating (plus-5.5 per 100 possessions.)
- Per ESPN, the Cavs are plus-31 with LeBron James on the floor and Andre Iguodala off the court in 44 minutes in this series. They are a minus-48 with James and Iguodala both on the floor, a stunning testament to Iguodala's repeat-Finals-MVP candidacy.
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