By Mark Bacon
For months, the world assured all the NBA Western Conference Finals would be between the Golden State Warriors (73 win, regular season) versus the San Antonio Spurs (67 wins, regular season.) And after Game 1 of the Spurs-Thunder series, that seemed prescient; a sure thing. Then, the Spurs put on an absolute clinic, showing the Thunder just dominant they were. Were.
In the blink of an eye, those expectations were reduced to rubble. The Thunder's defense clicked, forcing one-on-one matchups that completely disrupted a team that has helped lead a revolution in ball movement and open 3-point looks. The Spurs overpassed, and in an even more bizarre development, were forced into isolation plays trying to get Leonard and Aldridge free to make difficult shots, burning valuable time on the clock.
Now, we're left with a (possibly) more entertaining showdown between the Thunder and Warriors. With Stephen Curry looking to be completely back to form after his MCL sprain, the Warriors don't appear to have any potential weaknesses in their quest for a second straight title.
Can OKC ruin the long-running expectations of the Warriors repeating as NBA champs? They crashed the party in the house of the elite NBA Western Conference and are looking to demolish that house. Can they do it? The key points of this matchup are as follows in this preview of the surprising Western Conference finals:
Can the Thunder stretch the floor against the Warriors?
After watching the Portland Trail Blazers torch the Warriors' defense from behind the 3-point line this season (44.2 percent over their nine games against each other), there does seem to be an achilles heel IF you have the long range shooters. Portland used Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum so well to suck in the defense, with pick and roll situations, and created shots for open shooters that one wonders if OKC, with superior offensive attackers are can do the same? The Warriors weren't the type of team in the regular season to do that against. They were a top 7 team at not allowing 3-point attempts and they were second in the 3-point line defense.
The Thunder (17th in 3-point accuracy this season) have two guys who can suck in the defense as well as anyone. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are supreme talents at attacking in pick-and-rolls and off the dribble. Westbrook is a much better playmaker, with an extremely high powered engine; more than he’s been given credit for. Until now. The downhill-racer one guard did a great job distributing and creating against most teams this year and found a rhythm and pace against the Spurs in the last round, creating advantageous situations for the Thunder's shooters.
During the regular season, the Spurs allowed just 26.8 percent from downtown against the Thunder. That went up about five percent in their semi-finals matchup against OKC. In the final three games of the series (all Thunder wins), Westbrook averaged 12 assists and the Thunder made 33.8 percent of their 3-pointers. Ray Allen has nothing to fret over with this type of shooting, but the Thunder did get better in a tighter environment.
Against the Warriors this season, the Thunder shot just 29.4 percent from deep. This is much more in keeping, statistically, with how the Warriors defend the 3-point line. The big problem was Westbrook taking 3-point shots. The team without his attempts shot 34 percent from deep while Westbrook was just 3-of-18 (Durant was 10-of-21). Westbrook should resist taking these shots against the Dubs (considering that's what they want to happen) and find ways to create penetration, making the GS defense scramble, and get off rhythm. He can. Or will he be able to shoot 37.5 percent or somewhere in that neighborhood like he did in the final three games against the Spurs last round?
In their 73 wins this season, the Warriors allowed just 32.3 percent from deep. In their nine losses, they gave up 41.1 percent from beyond the arc. The Thunder have to become supreme shooters. Can Andre Roberson remain locked in from beyond the stripe?
The Thunder must take care of the ball and force turnovers against the Warriors.
The turnover disparity in their three regular season games against GS was massive and it's something the Thunder can't afford to let happen now. OKC turned the ball over on 16.8 percent of their possessions against the Dubs. That's high even for the Thunder, who were the third worst (15.8 percent) at taking care of the ball this season. The flip side of that is the Warriors, who were 19th in turnover rate (14.9 percent) this season, coughed it up just 9.5 percent of the time against the Thunder. That's just not going to cut it for the Thunder. Sloppiness could end up being their undoing in this series, even if they have found a 3-point stroke.
The Thunder did do a good job cutting down on turnovers against the Spurs in the last round. During the regular season, the Thunder turned the ball over 19.3 percent of the time; an obscenely high rate. While they weren't necessarily good at taking care of the ball in their six-game series against San Antonio, they dropped their turnover rate to 15.4 percent.
Between the Warriors' points off turnovers and their opponents' points off turnovers, Golden State went from a plus-0.5 points on average to a plus-7 points against the Thunder. Can you afford to give the Warriors an extra 6.5 points per game and beat them four times out of seven? No.
Who is the best big man for the Thunder in this series?
Serge Ibaka or Steven Adams? At the start of this year, a question like this would be viewed as ridiculous. But with Steven Adams’ performance in the playoffs and especially against the Spurs, it's a legitimate query. He is looking like one of the best bigs in the NBA. Ibaka became less and less trustworthy for the Thunder as the season progressed. He used to be a spectacular safety valve for both Westbrook and Durant. He could stretch the floor perfectly to 18-20 feet, and he even extended his range to beyond the 3-point line as he hit 37.7 percent from deep over the previous two seasons. This year, he dropped to 32.6 percent from deep.
However, it's picked up in the playoffs with him shooting 61.5 percent from downtown against Dallas and 50 percent against San Antonio. But it was Adams who outplayed the Spurs' frontcourt in the previous round. Convincingly. There was a huge disparity between Adams being on/off the floor that wasn't there with Ibaka. The Thunder were 5.1 points per 100 possessions better with Ibaka on the floor as opposed to off. With Adams, they were 18.1 points per 100 possessions better. His ability to rebound and finish around the hoop became big weapons for OKC. And Adams gets in his opponents heads very well. He’s Old School, in that regard.
You can still play them both against the Warriors, and maybe even when they go small too. It's more likely the Thunder will try to match up with Durant at the 4 in these situations and hope a big man can keep up with and hold his own against Draymond Green. (Green and Adams trash-talking potential would make The Glove—Gary Payton—proud.) That's going to be the tricky, though. Ibaka is more mobile and a better rim protector. But most of this season and postseason has seen Ibaka and Adams have a similar effectiveness—which isn't great—at the protecting the rim. Do not overlook Enes Kanter, either. He is emerging at the right time. An X-factor? And, will OKC abandon going small?
Even though they lost all three games to the Warriors this season, their starting lineup of Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Adams, and Andre Roberson was a plus-30.2 points per 100 possessions. They did seem to avoid going small (especially with Adams as the big man, often. The book on beating the Warriors has been to play big, physical and control the tempo of the game. The Thunder can do that and not have to pick between their two starting bigs. Maybe.
How do the Warriors stop the duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook?
Durant scored 110.1 points per 100 possessions against the Warriors this season when he made a play that resulted in a shot, turnover, or trip to the free throw line. Just as a reminder, the Warriors led the NBA in offensive rating at 112.5. So Durant scoring against one of the top defenses in the NBA was just under what the Warriors do to everybody.
Russell Westbrook at just 76.5 points per 100 possessions against the Warriors this season when he made a play that ended in a shot attempt, turnover, or trip to the line. In the half-court, he clocked in at just 68.4 points per 100. Russ hurt the Thunder in this matchup over and over again because he kept trying to make all of the plays himself.
Even with defenders like Green, Andre Iguodala, and Harrison Barnes, Durant seems to be relatively Warriors-proof. His shooting percentages against the Warriors this season were 52.9/47.6/96.4. That's ridiculous. He did turn the ball over 19 times against them, but mostly he torched them. He should be just fine.
It's finding Westbrook's rhythm against Klay Thompson and other wing defenders while having to use energy on the defensive end trying to slow down Curry for as often as he's on him. His numbers (25 points, 10.7 assists, and 5.3 rebounds) were fine until you look at him shooting 34.6 percent from the field against the Warriors. Considering the sheer volume in which he attacks, the Warriors slowing him down will probably matter more than how they tangle with Durant.
How do the Thunder avoid being stymied in tight games in this series?
There's the psychological factor too, right? The Thunder were fantastic against the Spurs late in games in this series. They did a great job of defending the Spurs in clutch situations in that series and it's the reason they moved on to the conference finals. But it's an entirely different animal trying to slow down the Warriors in crunch time moments, considering just how nearly perfect they appear to be in these situations.
Even when the Thunder are giving the Warriors everything they can to take them down, Steph Curry has moments in which he wins the game and obliterates your morale in the process. OKC must get inside his head. He dislikes contact. Dion Waters and especially Steven Adams thrive on it.
The Thunder can do enough correct to win the game, but Curry can still pull up from 40 feet in the tight seconds of a game and bury the impossible shot. That's the difference. The Thunder used to be one of the few teams with a weapon like that in Durant. Not only do the Warriors have that guy as well, but he can hurt you from more spots on the floor and at a higher rate of success.
That has to trouble the Thunder and it's a reminder that a team can't be “good enough” the Warriors; you have to be nearly perfect. But we thought the same thing against the Spurs and look where that got the Thunder.
I won't guarantee an OKC series victory. But I like their chances.
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